Climate Change and National Security

Climate change is a national security threat. The effects of global warming are increasingly being felt via trade disruptions, population displacement, and food and energy shortages. With escalating rates of natural disasters and a rapidly growing global population, it is only a matter of time before this implodes in international conflict.

 Climate laggards will be held to account

 In September of this year, Australia’s parliament finally passed legislation enshrining a pledge to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050. This placed us in a group of over 70 countries globally—including the biggest polluters in China, the United States, and the European Union—who have committed to this net-zero target (United Nations, 2022a). However, like many countries, Australia’s current plan to achieve this goal is insufficient. As key milestones such as 2030 and 2050 approach, this is likely to cause increasing geopolitical conflict as countries argue about the necessary steps needed to meet Paris Agreement targets. Those countries failing to pull their weight will undoubtedly be held to account.

 Further geopolitical tension is likely to rise as countries compete to develop the renewable energy technologies that are necessary in cutting emissions. While this is likely to incentivise much needed green technological breakthroughs, it will also place a strain on international relationships as each country seeks to control resources.

 Physical effects will drive further geopolitical tension

Communities across the globe are increasingly feeling the effects of global warming via more frequent and more intense natural disasters. Australia’s east coast has already suffered a series of catastrophic flooding this year that is likely to continue as we enter a third consecutive La Niña. Our Pacific Islander neighbours are also at risk of displacement if ocean levels continue to rise, while warming sea surface temperatures are leading to more intense tropical storms and cyclones across South-East Asia. These physical effects of climate change are of course not just a local issue. Indeed, in 2021 UN Special Rapporteur Ian Fry reported that 59.1 million people were internally displaced by climate-related disasters across the globe (United Nations, 2022b). This increasing rate of displacement is likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical conflicts as governments take action to secure their interests.

In addition to impacting the inhabitability of communities across the globe, the effects of climate change are also likely to be felt through food, water, and energy shortages. Higher temperatures, extreme weather, and drought are likely to jeopardise the quality and quantity of food and water supply chains. These physical effects will also result in a higher consumption of energy, as humans rely more heavily on air-conditioning and heating. With the global population expected to grow to almost 10 billion by 2050, strains on these supply chains are only going to increase. This will contribute to further geopolitical tensions as countries compete over limited resources.

 Conflict in the developing world

 There is an inextricable link between climate change and poverty (see Climate Change and Poverty). Indeed, scientific forecasts suggest that the intensifying effects of global warming will have the most acute effect on developing nations that are ill-positioned to adapt to such changes (Price et al., 2021). This is likely to lead to increased instability and internal conflict across the developing world due to local resource competition and livelihood insecurity. In fact, of the 25 countries deemed most vulnerable to climate change, 14 are embroiled in conflict (IRCC, 2020). For Australia, this may well have financial implications given an increase in the demand on Australian diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and military resources.

 Climate change is a global issue. As the intensity and frequency of climate-related disasters increase across the world and geopolitical tensions surrounding responsibility mount, there is an increasing threat to our national security. Addressing climate change is now imperative for the safety and well-being of our population.

References

Fleming, A., Kelly, E., Martin, S., Freeman, L., Markowitz, J., Norris, R., Lieberman, B., & Carlson, L. (2011). Climate change: multiplying threats to national security. 10.13140/RG.2.1.1887.6566.

International Red Cross Committee. (2020). Seven things you need to know about climate change and conflict. Retrieved October 8 from https://www.icrc.org/en/document/climate-change-and-conflict

 Price, S., Pitts, T., & Van Roekel, L. (2021). Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040: LANL contributions to 2021 National Intelligence Estimate (No. LA-UR-21-32421). Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States).

United Nations. (2022a). For a livable climate: Net-zero commitments must be backed by credible action. Retrieved October 8 from https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition

United Nations. (2022b). “Intolerable tide” of people displaced by climate change: UN expert https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2022/06/intolerable-tide-people-displaced-climate-change-un-expert